Posted by: Dirk | March 14, 2008

Impact of China – smog and carbon dioxide

A few weeks ago this NASA satellite image of smog in China was published on some blogs:

But smog is not the only environmental problem of China. Brad DeLong points to a paper by Maximillian Auffhammer and Richard Carson. Here is the abstract:

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China’s Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2015 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This dataset contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series models currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence.

China is working on the matter and plans to create carbon-neutral cities, as reported by Science. Let us just hope that China sticks with its one-child policy, which was in doubt recently. It seems to me like there is enough trouble already.


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