Posted by: Dirk | April 25, 2007

Wirtschaftswunder 2.0?

The German weekly Der Spiegel published a very optimistic article today on the economic situation in Germany. This is what they say:

Deutschland wächst mittlerweile in amerikanischen Dimensionen. Die US-Wirtschaft legte in den vergangenen Jahren zwischen drei und vier Prozent zu, allerdings bei kräftig wachsender Bevölkerung. In Deutschland dagegen stagniert die Einwohnerzahl. Beim aussagekräftigeren Vergleich des Pro-Kopf-Wachstums bewegen sich beide Länder in der gleichen Größenordnung.Sollten die Prophezeiungen tatsächlich eintreffen, dürfte sich auch der hiesige Arbeitsmarkt amerikanischen Verhältnissen annähern. Im kommenden Jahr könnte die Zahl der Jobsuchenden immer näher an die Drei-Millionen-Marke heranrücken, kalkulieren Regierungsexperten.

So Germany grows as fast as the US in the last years, if you look at GDP growth per capita. The number of unemployed might reach close to 3 million next year, down from close to 5 million at the start of 2006. The labour unit costs have stagnated in the last years, as you can see in this graph. If labour unit costs do matter (and I think they do), then it seems that Germany has quite a catching-up to do. If this happens, will Germany drag the rest of Europe along, or will other nations suffer through more intense competition? The euro is reality, so depreciation is not an option anymore. I would call it the Feuerprobe of the uro.

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Responses

  1. Hello, yes the figures are quite good, but what is the reason? Why the less unemployed number doesn’t match the number of newly created jobs?
    You may read my post “Germany grows” on my blog.


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